Colts in a state of flux

The relationship between Colts owner Jim Irsay, left, and quarterback Peyton Manning appears fractured. (Photo- AP/Michael Conroy)

Over the past decade, you could count the most stable franchises in the NFL on one hand. Moreover, you could cut off a few fingers on that hand.

The New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts (and the Philadelphia Eagles to some extent) have been the model teams in the league, thanks to great quarterbacks (Tom Brady and Peyton Manning), great coaches (Bill Belichick and Tony Dungy) and shrewd owners (Robert Kraft and Jim Irsay). While the Patriots are on the way to their fifth Super Bowl of the Brady-Belichick era, the Colts are on their way to rebuilding, and it's not going smoothly.

Indianapolis's 2-14 season showed just how much Manning means to the team, but it also revealed how much he held things together. The team is littered with Pro Bowl-caliber players such as wide receiver Reggie Wayne, defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis and safety Antoine Bethea, but without No. 18, the Colts couldn't score in 2011 and were hardly competitive.

Irsay, in response, has made sweeping changes. He fired vice chairman Bill Polian, general manager Chris Polian and head coach Jim Caldwell. Ryan Grigson, the former director of player personnel for the Eagles, has been installed as the new GM, and former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano was hired as the new head coach. The big piece in all this, unsurprisingly, is Manning. In about six weeks, he's due a $28 million bonus (essentially taking away his tradeability) or the Colts can cut him. The 35-year-old quarterback is still rehabbing a neck injury, and the team is poised to take Stanford QB Andrew Luck with the first pick in April's draft.

There's a strong possibility Manning's time as a Colt could be over, but nobody's saying exactly that. In an interview with Bob Kravitz of The Indianapolis Star earlier this week, Manning commented on how things around the team felt different:

   "I mean, it's 20 degrees, it's snowing, the building is absolutely empty except when you see coaches cleaning out their offices," he said. "I guess it's the reality of the football world, just not something I've had to deal with very often. But I'm in there every day, so I have to sit there and see it. Everybody's being evaluated and I'm no different. It's not the best environment.
   "I just want to pay tribute to all those guys. It's unfortunate because so many of them have been such a big part of so many big wins here, and this is so ... sudden. Their keys didn't work the next day. There's no other way to do it? I don’t know. That's hard to see, all these people leaving.
   "And I may be behind them. Who knows?"

After the Colts introduced Pagano on Thursday, Irsay had some harsh words for Manning's comments, wishing that the quarterback had kept his comments in-house:

   "I have so much affection and appreciation for Peyton. I mean we're family. We always will be and we are," Irsay said. "He's a politician. I mean look at, when it comes to being competitive, let's just say on a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being the highest, we're both 11s, OK? So there's been plenty of eggshells scattered around this building by him with his competitive desire to win."

Within hours, both men put out conciliatory statements, saying the decision of whether Manning will stay in Indianapolis will be handled civilly. The consensus of writers and analysts points to Manning being gone. The Colts have major cap issues and decisions to make in regards to re-signing players like Wayne and Mathis. Having Manning's bonus and salary off the books would go a long way in stabilizing Indy's bottom line. The matter of whether Manning will retire or play for another team next season is dependent on his health. Nobody wants a quarterback with a bad neck standing in the pocket against today's defenses, but a healthy Manning could really boost a contending team. 

Whatever happens, it appears the Patriots are now in a class by themselves in terms of model teams in the league, one finger on the hand (you can probably guess what finger it is). What a difference a year can make.

Davis-for-Bass trade paying dividends for Boston

In sports, there are usually three types of trades: blockbusters, the eyebrow-raisers, and the forgettables. The early December trade that sent forward Glen Davis to Orlando in exchange for forward Brandon Bass was one of those middling eyebrow-raisers, and we're beginning to see what each player has meant to their new team.

So far this season, Bass has been the better addition, putting up 11.9 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. Davis has averaged 8.1 points and 5.5 rebounds. In Monday's win over Orlando in Boston, Bass (19 points, eight rebounds) also had the upper hand against Davis (six points, 11 boards).

Both players were traded after their best statistical seasons with their previous teams. Davis averaged 11.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game for the Celtics, and Bass averaged 11.2 points and 5.6 rebounds as part of the Magic. Those are surprisingly similar stat lines considering how much the two have in common. The two players are both 26-year-old Baton Rouge, La. natives who played their college ball at LSU and came into the league as second-round picks (Bass in 2005, Davis in 2007).

There are two things that set Davis apart from Bass, however, and both of them could be construed negatively. First, Davis's maturity has been an issue throughout his time in the NBA. Though his funny antics made him a fan favorite, the player known as "Big Baby" had many run-ins with head coach Doc Rivers over his four seasons with the team about his behavior and effort. In 2009, Davis broke his thumb in an offseason fight with a childhood friend and missed almost two months of the season. This season, Davis has already had his mentality questioned by his new coach, Stan Van Gundy.

Second, the bottom line will always matter. Big Baby is in the first year of a four-year, $25.7 million contract. Bass, on the other hand, is in the first year of a two-year contract worth $8.5 million that has a player option for the second year. Basically, if Bass likes it in Boston, he can stay another year at a cheaper price than Davis would have commanded, then the Celtics can get him off the books.

The Celtics are getting better production off the bench from Bass and at a lower price. They're also creating cap space for the future, a commodity for any team. Sure, the Magic have played much better so far this season, but if Monday's game was any indication, the Celtics may be turning their season around, and Bass could be a big part of the revival. This trade was and is an eyebrow raiser, but it may turn out to be one that makes Celtics fans nod their heads in agreement.

(Bass photo credit: AP/Elise Amendola)

AFC Championship Game Preview: Three Keys to a Patriots Win

Championship Sunday is upon us once again, and the New England Patriots have a chance to win that elusive fourth Super Bowl. Standing in the way of a trip to Indianapolis are the always-formidable Baltimore Ravens, led by two future Hall of Famers: linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed, who called out quarterback Joe Flacco earlier this week.

Pats fans should remember -- probably not fondly -- the last time Baltimore came to Foxborough in the postseason. The Ravens trounced New England 33-14 in a 2009 Wild Card matchup that saw Baltimore outscore Tom Brady and company 24-0 in the first quarter. Sunday's game is important for two reasons, the obvious one being that a trip to Super Bowl XLVI is on the line. The less obvious reason is the Patriots have still not beaten a team that finished with a winning record this season.

Here are three keys to New England punching its ticket to Indy:

1. Score 30 points or more.
    The Patriots have the best offense of the final four teams. New England has scored 30 or more points in 13 of its 17 games this season. By contrast, Baltimore has accomplished that feat five times in 2011 and only once since Week Eight of the regular season. The Ravens' defense hasn't allowed more than 16 points in a game since Week 11, but if Brady can get the offense off to a fast start on Sunday, that could change.
    New England makes its living working the middle of the field, with Brady getting to the ball to Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in space. The up-the-middle combo of Haloti Ngata, Lewis and Reed will have their hands full.

2. Don't give up big plays on defense.
    Baltimore's offense is slow and methodical most of the time, but it can explode if the Patriots aren't careful. Flacco can throw the deep ball as well as any quarterback in the league, and he has a guy who can go get that ball in rookie speedster Torrey Smith.
    Rice can make plays on the edges and between the tackles, and the Ravens' two tight ends (Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta) are athletic enough to get open down the field. New England's defenders have to stand firm and keep everything in front of them or it could be a long afternoon.

3. Make Flacco win the game.
    The Ravens' quarterback has won throughout his short career, but he hasn't been spectacular. In the 2009 playoff win against the Patriots, Flacco wasn't a factor at all, completing just four of 10 passes for 34 yards with an interception. He threw for 176 yards and two touchdowns against Houston last week, but it wasn't enough to keep Reed from saying that Flacco was "rattled" by the Texans.
    Baltimore's offense runs through Ray Rice. According to ESPN.com, Rice rushed for 1,209 of his 1,364 yards this season in the Ravens' wins. Rice had 159 yards rushing in the 2009 win in Foxborough, including an 83-yard score to start the game. The Patriots have to shut down Rice and make Joe Flacco win the game in the air against an improved New England pass defense.